Should we expand into Poland?
Conceptual Case study. This is an editorial illustration of how RAZOOM is designed to approach the problem, written by the RAZOOM team. It was not produced by a working system, and the figures in it are illustrative.
The Case outcome at a glance
Expansion is attractive only if customer acquisition cost stays below the break-even threshold. That number cannot be reasoned out — it has to be measured.
- Next action
- Run a 90-day pilot in two cities to measure acquisition cost before committing the full budget.
- What could change it
- Acquisition cost above the break-even threshold
Original problem
A B2B logistics software company with strong traction in Germany is considering Poland as its next market. The leadership team wants a recommendation before the next board meeting.
Why the question is hard
- It sounds like a research question, so it invites a long market report.
- The real comparison is against the next-best use of the same capital, which is rarely stated.
- The decisive input — acquisition cost in a new market — does not exist in any document.
How RAZOOM would reframe it
Under what conditions does Poland deliver a better risk-adjusted return than the next-best use of €1.2M within 24 months?
This makes the choice at stake explicit, with an objective, a constraint and an alternative — which makes it answerable, or shows exactly what is missing.
Problem graph
Decision
Expand into Poland?
Method: Decision threshold analysis
Subproblems
Market demand
Method: Market research
Risk
Method: Monte Carlo simulation
Regulation
Method: Scenario analysis
Operational capacity
Method: Scenario analysis
Unit economics
Method: Unit-economics model
Capital requirements
Method: Monte Carlo simulation
Drivers
Competition
Method: Market research
Feeds: Market demand, Risk
Customer acquisition
Method: Causal analysis
Feeds: Unit economics, Capital requirements
Pricing
Method: Sensitivity analysis
Feeds: Unit economics
Selected methods
- Market researchMarket demand, Competition
- Facts exist and can be found.
- Unit-economics modelUnit economics
- Payback is computable once inputs are explicit.
- Causal analysisCustomer acquisition
- Separates channels that cause acquisition from ones that merely correlate.
- Sensitivity analysisPricing
- Shows how far price can move before the case breaks.
- Monte Carlo simulationRisk, Capital requirements
- Inputs are uncertain; the distribution of cash outcomes matters.
- Scenario analysisRegulation, Operational capacity
- A few discrete futures matter more than averages.
- Decision threshold analysisThe decision
- Finds the value at which the recommendation flips.
Evidence needed
- Competitor pricing and positioning in the Polish mid-market
- Acquisition cost by channel in comparable markets
- Licensing and data-residency requirements
- Hiring timelines for local sales and support
What could change the decision
- Acquisition cost above the break-even threshold
- A competitor responding with aggressive local pricing
- A cheaper entry route through a distribution partner
